Open Problems in History
  1. 1
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    Does Proto-Elamite record language, and is it the ancestor of Linear Elamite?

    Iran's earliest script survives on about 1,600–1,700 accounting tablets; its numbers are read, but whether its other signs write words, and how it relates to Linear Elamite, is disputed.

    digitization
    Languages & scripts · Middle East · 3300–1880 BCE
    Languages & scripts Middle East 3300–1880 BCE
  2. 2
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    Does the Indus script encode language, or a non-linguistic sign system?

    Whether the short Harappan inscriptions record speech at all has been argued with entropy statistics for two decades; no test yet separates writing from emblem systems decisively.

    digitization
    Languages & scripts · South Asia · 2600–1900 BCE
    Languages & scripts South Asia 2600–1900 BCE
  3. 3
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    Where was Agade, the capital of the Sargonic empire?

    The city from which Sargon and his successors ruled Mesopotamia c. 2300 BCE has never been securely located, despite more than a century of searching in central Iraq.

    science
    Places · Middle East · 2350–539 BCE
    Places Middle East 2350–539 BCE
  4. 4
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    What is the absolute chronology of early second-millennium BCE Mesopotamia?

    Competing High, Middle, Low and Ultra-Low chronologies place Hammurabi and the fall of Babylon up to about 150 years apart; no single model integrates all the evidence.

    science
    Chronology · Middle East · 2000–1500 BCE
    Chronology Middle East 2000–1500 BCE
  5. 5
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    What language does Linear A record, and can any proposed family beat chance?

    Minoan Linear A can be roughly sounded out through Linear B values, but no proposed language family has been shown to fit better than random controls.

    Languages & scripts · Mediterranean · 1800–1450 BCE
    Languages & scripts Mediterranean 1800–1450 BCE
  6. 6
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    Can the Meroitic language be translated beyond its funerary formulae?

    Meroitic script has been readable since Griffith's work of 1909–1911, but outside formulaic texts the language of the Kingdom of Kush is still largely untranslated.

    digitization
    Languages & scripts · Africa · 300 BCE–450 CE
    Languages & scripts Africa 300 BCE–450 CE
  7. 7
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    Did Ptolemy observe the Almagest star catalogue or adapt Hipparchus's?

    Ptolemy's catalogue of about 1,025 stars claims his own observations; statistical anomalies suggest much of it derives from Hipparchus three centuries earlier.

    science
    Science & knowledge · Mediterranean · 135 BCE–160 CE
    Science & knowledge Mediterranean 135 BCE–160 CE
  8. 8
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    How large was the Roman citizen population in the late Republic and under Augustus?

    Roman census totals jump from about 910,000 in 70/69 BCE to 4,063,000 in 28 BCE; whether this reflects a change in who was counted or real growth remains disputed.

    digitization
    Demography · Mediterranean · 115 BCE–14 CE
    Demography Mediterranean 115 BCE–14 CE
  9. 9
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    How many people did the Justinianic Plague kill, and did it change late antique society?

    Ancient DNA confirms Yersinia pestis caused the First Pandemic (541–c.750), but estimates of its mortality and long-term consequences range from catastrophic to modest.

    science
    Disease · Mediterranean · 541–750
    Disease Mediterranean 541–750
  10. 10
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    When was the consonantal text of the Qurʾān standardized?

    Islamic tradition credits the caliph ʿUthmān (c. 650); some scholars place closure under ʿAbd al-Malik and al-Ḥajjāj (c. 700) or later. Manuscript evidence is now testing these positions.

    sciencedigitization
    Texts & authorship · Middle East · 632–750
    Texts & authorship Middle East 632–750
  11. 11
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    When was Beowulf composed?

    Proposed dates for the poem range from about 700 to the early eleventh century, the date of its only manuscript, and rest on metre, language, palaeography and historical context.

    Chronology · Europe · 680–1020
    Chronology Europe 680–1020
  12. 12
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    How much iron did Song China produce in the eleventh century?

    Robert Hartwell's estimate of about 125,000 tons of iron in 1078 is widely repeated, but it rests on fiscal records whose relation to total output is disputed.

    science
    Economy · East Asia · 960–1127
    Economy East Asia 960–1127
  13. 13
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    By what route did knowledge of gunpowder reach Latin Europe in the thirteenth century?

    Gunpowder formulas appear in China by 1044 and in Arabic and Latin texts by the later 1200s, but the path between them is unattested.

    digitization
    Science & knowledge · Global · 1040–1350
    Science & knowledge Global 1040–1350
  14. 14
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    Which volcanoes caused the great unattributed sulfate spikes in polar ice, above all 1809?

    Several of the largest volcanic sulfate deposits of the last millennium, in 1230, 1286, 1458, 1695 and 1809, have no securely identified source volcano.

    science
    Places · Global · 1229–1810
    Places Global 1229–1810
  15. 15
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    How, if at all, did Copernicus learn of the Maragha-school planetary models?

    Copernicus used devices found earlier in al-Ṭūsī and Ibn al-Shāṭir, but no document shows how a text containing them reached him or his teachers.

    digitization
    Science & knowledge · Europe · 1250–1543
    Science & knowledge Europe 1250–1543
  16. 16
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    Did the Black Death reach sub-Saharan Africa in the fourteenth century?

    Plague devastated Egypt and North Africa in 1347–49, but whether it crossed the Sahara or reached the Horn and East Africa is unresolved.

    science
    Disease · Africa · 1340–1500
    Disease Africa 1340–1500
  17. 17
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    Did Kerala-school infinite series reach early modern Europe through Jesuit missionaries?

    Madhava's school derived power series for π, sine and cosine before 1500; whether Jesuits in Kerala carried them to Europe remains undocumented.

    digitization
    Science & knowledge · South Asia · 1350–1700
    Science & knowledge South Asia 1350–1700
  18. 18
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    Did anyone write down the Aceh tsunamis of c. 1394 and c. 1450?

    Geology and archaeology show two great tsunamis struck northern Sumatra around 1394 and 1450, but no contemporary text describing either has been identified.

    science
    Chronology · Indian Ocean · 1390–1460
    Chronology Indian Ocean 1390–1460
  19. 19
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    Do khipus record more than numbers, and can their non-numerical signs be read?

    Andean knotted cords encode numbers in a known decimal system; whether colour, ply, attachment and knot direction also record names, categories or narrative remains open.

    digitization
    Languages & scripts · Americas · 1400–1800
    Languages & scripts Americas 1400–1800
  20. 20
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    How did Gutenberg cast his type?

    Glyph-level variation in the earliest Mainz types has been read both as evidence against the punch, matrix and hand mould, and as fully compatible with it.

    science
    Material & visual · Europe · 1450–1470
    Material & visual Europe 1450–1470
  21. 21
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    How many early printed editions have been lost without trace?

    Estimates of the share of fifteenth- and sixteenth-century editions that survive in no copy vary widely, and depend on statistical models that have rarely been tested against later discoveries.

    Texts & authorship · Europe · 1450–1600
    Texts & authorship Europe 1450–1600
  22. 22
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    How many people lived in the Americas in 1492?

    Estimates of the hemisphere's population on the eve of contact run from about 8 million to over 100 million, and the scale of the collapse depends on which is right.

    digitizationscience
    Demography · Americas · 1492–1650
    Demography Americas 1492–1650
  23. 23
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    How many Indigenous people were enslaved in the Americas between 1492 and 1900?

    Andrés Reséndez's estimate of 2.5 to 5 million enslaved Indigenous people is the only hemispheric figure, and it rests on regional extrapolation rather than a count.

    digitization
    Demography · Americas · 1492–1900
    Demography Americas 1492–1900
  24. 24
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    How many people were carried in the Indian Ocean slave trades, 1500–1850?

    European slave trading in the Indian Ocean has been tentatively counted, but the combined volume of Dutch, Portuguese, French, British, Arab, Swahili and South Asian trades remains unknown.

    digitization
    Economy · Indian Ocean · 1500–1850
    Economy Indian Ocean 1500–1850
  25. 25
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    Did the population of Ottoman Anatolia collapse in the late sixteenth and seventeenth centuries?

    Tax surveys show rapid growth in Anatolia to about 1580, but whether the decline that followed was a demographic collapse or an artefact of changing registration remains unsettled.

    digitization
    Demography · Middle East · 1520–1700
    Demography Middle East 1520–1700
  26. 26
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    How much American silver reached China between 1550 and 1800?

    Estimates of the share of Spanish American silver that ended up in China vary widely because mint, shipping and Chinese monetary records have never been reconciled in one account.

    Economy · Global · 1550–1800
    Economy Global 1550–1800
  27. 27
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    How many people lived in China around 1600, and how many died between 1620 and 1680?

    Late Ming population estimates run from about 150 million to over 200 million, so the scale of the mid-seventeenth-century collapse remains uncertain by tens of millions.

    Demography · East Asia · 1580–1680
    Demography East Asia 1580–1680
  28. 28
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    How many people were killed in the Irish rising of 1641?

    Contemporary claims of 154,000 to 300,000 Protestant victims are rejected, but the modern figure of roughly 4,000 killed has never been built from a full victim-level count.

    Demography · Europe · 1641–1642
    Demography Europe 1641–1642
  29. 29
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    How literate was the population of late imperial China?

    Rawski's 1979 estimate of 30–45 percent male literacy in Qing China has never been tested against a systematic count of signatures and marks on contracts.

    digitization
    Texts & authorship · East Asia · 1644–1911
    Texts & authorship East Asia 1644–1911
  30. 30
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    Did Vermeer use a camera obscura or other optical aids?

    Optical effects, perspective geometry and technical imaging have been read for and against Vermeer's use of a camera obscura, with no documentary evidence either way.

    science
    Material & visual · Europe · 1655–1675
    Material & visual Europe 1655–1675
  31. 31
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    Were Mendel's pea-hybrid data too close to expectation, and if so, why?

    Fisher showed in 1936 that Mendel's ratios fit theory improbably well; a century of explanations has not produced documentary evidence of how the counts were made.

    Science & knowledge · Europe · 1856–1866
    Science & knowledge Europe 1856–1866
  32. 32
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    How many died of influenza in India in 1918–19, and why was mortality so high?

    India probably lost more lives than any other country in the 1918–19 pandemic, but estimates run from about 12 to over 17 million and the causes remain debated.

    digitization
    Disease · South Asia · 1918–1920
    Disease South Asia 1918–1920
  33. 33
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    How many people died in the Great Leap Forward famine of 1959–1961?

    Estimates of excess deaths in China's Great Leap famine range from under 20 million to 45 million, depending on sources, baselines and assumptions about registration.

    Demography · East Asia · 1958–1962
    Demography East Asia 1958–1962